The body only price today is $686.85.
The price with a 18-55 kit lens is $761.92.
If you buy the camera together with the 70-300mm VR lens, you get an additional $200 off.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Where is Nikon D400?
Nikon did not announce D400 on 08/24. Sony made a few exciting announcements (see www.dpreview.com). It is reasonable to speculate that Nikon D400 will use Sony A77's 24MP sensor. Nikon may just get hold of the sensor, since understandably Sony want to keep it exclusively for A77 for a while. If so, Nikon may need at least another half year to tune this sensor. I guess the earliest time that Nikon can announce D400 is ealry next year.
Monday, August 22, 2011
The half life of DSLR price
Nikon DSLR D5100 ’s price dropped from $800 to $730 in four months, at this rate, assuming an exponential decay in price, its price will reach $400 in 20 months (this is, of course, a rough estimate).
I (gu)estimate that the price of a consumer level camera body has a half life of about two years. The prices of pro level bodies have longer half lives of three to five years.
What does this tell us? It can help us decide shall we buy the camera now or wait a little longer?
If the price has a half life of 2 years (consumer level bodies), then we expect the price to decrease by 10% approximately every 4 months, or the price will decrease 2.8% each month.
If the price has a half life of 5 years (pro bodies), then we expect the price to decrease by 10% approximately every 9 months! The price will drop just over 1% each month!
For example, the current price of D3S is approximately $5000, if I am willing to spend $2500, I may be able to afford a Nikon D3S in 5 years (it is possible that it will be discontinued long before that time or I may get it earlier if I consider second-hand market). If I just want to wait for one year, I expect the price to be around $4200 by then: if I saw that price before that time, it is probably a good deal (e.g., this may happen around Thanksgiving or Christmas)!
I (gu)estimate that the price of a consumer level camera body has a half life of about two years. The prices of pro level bodies have longer half lives of three to five years.
What does this tell us? It can help us decide shall we buy the camera now or wait a little longer?
If the price has a half life of 2 years (consumer level bodies), then we expect the price to decrease by 10% approximately every 4 months, or the price will decrease 2.8% each month.
If the price has a half life of 5 years (pro bodies), then we expect the price to decrease by 10% approximately every 9 months! The price will drop just over 1% each month!
For example, the current price of D3S is approximately $5000, if I am willing to spend $2500, I may be able to afford a Nikon D3S in 5 years (it is possible that it will be discontinued long before that time or I may get it earlier if I consider second-hand market). If I just want to wait for one year, I expect the price to be around $4200 by then: if I saw that price before that time, it is probably a good deal (e.g., this may happen around Thanksgiving or Christmas)!
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